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On March 22, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Unification, Lee Jong-joo, announced that “there are no plans for direct government-to-government humanitarian aid” to North Korea.
But the government is “considering when and how to resume humanitarian aid provided by South Korean NGOs.” This is certainly a step in the right direction given that in recent months the Republic of Korea (ROK) government officials have received enquiries by Korean civil society, governments and United Nations officials.
World Food Program (WFP) officials arrive this week to explore the possibility for the ROK to contribute to a new round of aid.
The pressure is likely to mount, especially after the WFP and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) release their findings from a recent crop assessment. The ROK senior officials have to confront several dilemmas.
The first is the findings themselves presented by the U.N. assessment mission and an earlier United States NGO team. Both paint a very bleak picture about the humanitarian crisis looming in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)
Among the key findings:
― Harvested crop from 2010 will be depleted by May.
― Daily rations reduced to 360 grams a day when a healthy adult needs 1,900 grams.
― Children under five are exhibiting severe malnutrition signs of stunting and wasting.
In February seven NGO experts from Christian Friends of Korea, Global Resource Services, Mercy Corps, Samaritan’s Purse and World Vision found that:
― Heavy rains and flooding last summer reduced vegetable crops by more than 50 percent and adversely impacted rice and corn crops, the people’s main staple.
― The coldest winter in 66 years, destroyed up to 50 percent of spring wheat, barley and potato seedlings,
― The total grain produced in 2010 is 5.12 million metric tons, 40 percent below minimum ration requirement of the entire population.
― Households in urban and mountainous areas supplement insufficient rations by taking food gifts from friends who farm, consuming seed stock, and gathering wild grasses to add to meals.
Can the ROK government consciously ignore the tragic plight especially the vulnerable children suffering from severe malnutrition? How can the ROK explain to the world its refusal to extend a hand of compassion?
The second major dilemma for President Lee Myung-bak is the April 27 by-elections. While his Grand National Party appears to be confident of a continued majority prior to the elections he is unlikely to reverse his stated position toward the North. He has frequently reiterated that the DPRK must demonstrate sincerity with concrete actions if it wishes to see a resumption of robust inter-Korean ties and the sixty-party talks.
The third dilemma for the ROK is its unyielding position that improved inter-Korean relations, including humanitarian aid, will be possible only if the DPRK would “sincerely apologize” for the sinking of the Cheonan frigate, and the Yeonpyeong Island shelling. This week’s remembrance of the Cheonan sailors who died resurfaced the ROK citizens’ animosity toward the DPRK, making any humanitarian aid to the North politically unpalatable. Meanwhile, a DPRK apology is highly unlikely since it has consistently denied any responsibility.
The fourth dilemma is an influential ROK civil society segment that has been advocating for a resumption of aid. The NGOs plea on a humanitarian principle of showing humanity to those in need. Some public figures and academics view engagement as ROK’s best strategy toward a lasting peace on the peninsula. They do not believe that confrontation will bend DPRK knees and fear that diplomatic brinkmanship on a highly militarized peninsula can lead to miscalculation with disastrous consequences for both sides.
The fifth dilemma is whether the international community should continue to carry the burden of helping the DPRK, impoverished with chronic food shortage and suffering years of mismanaged farm policy and frequent natural disasters. Despite taking FAO advice by double cropping and by potato production, the chronic food deficit has long-term serious nutrition implications. According to Statistics Korea’s report released on March 22, the life expectancy of a North Korean man is now put at 64, a decrease of three years, compared to 1995.
Finally, there is an ongoing debate among diplomats with regard to using starvation as a weapon to bring down the DPRK regime. They blame DPRK’s uncaring attitude which squanders precious resources on the military instead of feeding its people. They believe that the only hope to change the circumstances of the people is regime change.
The U.N. has called for 470,000 metric tons of international aid. This will spark further debates among the traditional WFP donors and NGOs, some of whom have spoken out against food aid to the DPRK because of its refusal to allow for unfettered access for monitoring.
Will donors respond? The largest donors have been the U.S. and the ROK. Both have withdrawn aid and imposed draconian sanctions because of the DPRK’s nuclear weapons program and military aggressiveness. Some in the ROK argue that new food aid will be diverted or siphoned off by the government, or stockpiled for use during celebrations of the 100th anniversary of the late North Korean founding father Kim Il-sung's birth in 2012.
“Would food aid help to ensure the survival of a state whose treatment of its own citizens is among the most abysmal in the world?” asked Christopher Hill, the former U.S. chief negotiator, in a recent article. He speculated whether “denying food aid would result in a famine that the North Korean regime could not withstand.”
He predicted that “South Korea's government will confront one of the toughest choices that any government can face: whether the short-term cost in human lives is worth the potential long-term benefits ― also in terms of human lives ― that a famine-induced collapse of North Korea could bring.”
I have visited the DPRK since the 1980s and know that the first to die are referred to in the Bible as the wretched of the earth. These are those in the remotest countryside, the prisoners in labor camps, the families that depend on a depleted public distribution system, the elderly, the women and children.
To feed or not to feed is a reasonable question to ponder. Will the ROK, and indeed the entire humanitarian community, lose sight of their moral compass? They would do well to remember the words of President Ronald Reagan, “A hungry child knows no politics.”
Victor W. Hsu is a professor at the Korean Development Institute School of Public Policy and Management. He served as a national director for North Korea of World Vision International. He can be reached at victorhsu@kdischool.ac.kr.
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